Track record
Performance
These are real trades on setups we graded and published. We take the ones that fit our plan; every one of those lands here, win or lose.
Account-level overview. Total return is realized profit on the $100k account baseline; per-trade percents are round-trip gain on the position. Tickers, setup, and timeframe are shown so you can verify; position size and dollar values are not.
- Total return
- +25.94%
- Realized, on the $100k baseline · 47 closed trades
- Win rate
- 70.2%
- Closed trades above a 0.05% dead-band
- Profit factor
- 3.57
- Winning percent ÷ losing percent
- Max drawdown
- −2.92%
- Worst peak-to-trough on the curve
Equity curve
Cumulative percent return across closed trades. 11 positions still open and not yet counted. The dashed line is the broker's own daily mark of the account, open positions included. The thin line is SPY over the same window.
| Date | Closed trades, realized | Broker equity, marked to market | SPY, same window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | — | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Jun 26 | −0.53% | −0.26% | −0.72% |
| Jun 27 | +0.08% | +2.07% | −0.72% |
| Jun 29 | +1.29% | +2.07% | +0.91% |
| Jun 30 | +2.02% | +2.00% | +1.70% |
| Jul 1 | +2.76% | +1.77% | +1.56% |
| Jul 2 | +2.45% | +2.48% | +1.43% |
| Jul 3 | +2.14% | −0.49% | +1.43% |
| Jul 6 | +1.22% | −0.49% | +2.31% |
| Jul 7 | +0.91% | +2.87% | +1.83% |
| Jul 8 | +5.74% | +1.67% | +1.51% |
| Jul 9 | +5.27% | +4.72% | +2.37% |
| Jul 10 | +4.80% | +5.68% | +2.81% |
| Jul 11 | +4.32% | +4.71% | +2.81% |
| Jul 13 | +3.38% | +4.71% | +2.03% |
| Jul 14 | +3.42% | +3.71% | +2.39% |
| Jul 15 | +3.47% | +3.62% | +2.79% |
| Jul 16 | +2.82% | +4.64% | +2.24% |
| Jul 17 | +3.52% | +3.04% | +1.22% |
| Jul 18 | +4.22% | +0.45% | +1.22% |
| Jul 20 | +5.62% | +0.45% | +1.06% |
| Jul 21 | +6.32% | +1.64% | +1.90% |
| Jul 22 | +5.29% | +4.74% | +1.79% |
| Jul 23 | +5.69% | +2.05% | +0.53% |
| Jul 24 | +6.09% | −2.20% | +0.63% |
| Jul 25 | +6.48% | −4.22% | +0.63% |
| Jul 27 | +7.27% | −4.22% | +0.65% |
| Jul 28 | +7.67% | −1.29% | +0.89% |
| Jul 29 | +8.06% | −2.46% | −0.66% |
| Jul 30 | +8.46% | −2.46% | +1.01% |
| Jul 31 | +8.79% | +0.61% | +1.73% |
| Aug 1 | +9.11% | +0.53% | +1.73% |
| Aug 3 | +9.76% | +0.53% | +3.18% |
| Aug 4 | +14.24% | +2.97% | +5.04% |
| Aug 5 | +19.16% | +11.07% | +4.83% |
| Aug 6 | +17.69% | +13.69% | +4.67% |
| Aug 7 | +18.15% | +11.77% | +5.31% |
| Aug 8 | +18.34% | +14.22% | +5.31% |
| Aug 10 | +18.73% | +14.22% | +5.27% |
| Aug 11 | +18.92% | +13.52% | +4.94% |
| Aug 12 | +19.11% | +14.74% | +5.20% |
| Aug 13 | +19.31% | +14.38% | +5.93% |
| Aug 14 | +19.62% | +17.72% | +5.73% |
| Aug 15 | +19.93% | +17.07% | +5.73% |
| Aug 17 | +20.55% | +17.07% | +5.23% |
| Aug 18 | +20.87% | +15.82% | +4.51% |
| Aug 19 | +21.18% | +14.77% | +4.73% |
| Aug 20 | +21.49% | +19.28% | +3.85% |
| Aug 21 | +21.80% | +19.55% | +4.28% |
| Aug 22 | +22.11% | +21.37% | +4.28% |
| Aug 24 | +22.74% | +21.37% | +3.97% |
| Aug 25 | +24.01% | +21.19% | +4.30% |
| Aug 26 | +24.14% | +22.74% | +4.33% |
| Aug 27 | +24.28% | +21.58% | +5.01% |
| Aug 28 | +24.38% | +21.39% | +4.77% |
| Aug 29 | +24.49% | +21.20% | +4.77% |
| Aug 31 | +24.69% | +21.20% | +4.46% |
| Sep 1 | +24.80% | +20.03% | +3.74% |
| Sep 2 | +24.90% | +17.76% | +4.20% |
| Sep 3 | +25.01% | +19.37% | +5.29% |
| Sep 4 | +25.11% | +22.56% | +4.89% |
| Sep 5 | +25.21% | +20.94% | +4.89% |
| Sep 8 | +25.53% | +20.94% | +4.31% |
| Sep 9 | +25.54% | +21.02% | +3.83% |
| Sep 10 | +25.55% | +18.59% | +3.20% |
| Sep 11 | +25.56% | +18.11% | +4.08% |
| Sep 12 | +25.57% | +18.39% | +4.08% |
| Sep 14 | +25.59% | +18.39% | +3.62% |
| Sep 15 | +25.67% | +18.91% | +3.14% |
| Sep 16 | +25.76% | +16.67% | +2.69% |
| Sep 17 | +25.84% | +14.86% | +3.85% |
| Sep 18 | +25.94% | +16.53% | +3.99% |
| Sep 19 | +25.93% | +17.19% | +3.99% |
| Sep 21 | +25.90% | +17.19% | +5.60% |
| Sep 22 | +25.88% | +18.19% | +5.58% |
| Sep 23 | +25.87% | +18.46% | +4.82% |
| Sep 24 | +25.85% | +16.53% | +4.74% |
| Sep 25 | +25.84% | +16.16% | +5.31% |
| Sep 26 | +25.82% | +15.53% | +5.31% |
| Sep 28 | +25.79% | +15.53% | +4.52% |
| Sep 29 | +25.78% | +13.65% | +4.33% |
| Sep 30 | +25.76% | +13.32% | +4.12% |
| Oct 1 | +25.79% | +12.53% | +4.30% |
| Oct 2 | +25.82% | +12.49% | +5.07% |
| Oct 3 | +25.85% | +12.30% | +5.07% |
| Oct 5 | +25.91% | +12.30% | +5.78% |
| Oct 6 | +25.94% | +14.25% | +6.36% |
| Oct 7 | — | +14.14% | +6.11% |
| Oct 8 | — | +12.34% | +5.66% |
| Oct 9 | — | +13.02% | +6.29% |
Weekly P/L
Each bar is one week's realized return on the account; the count beneath is trades closed that week. Weeks without a close stay in, empty.
Detail
The rest of the ledger, in numbers.
- Closed
- 47
- Open
- 11
- Avg return
- +3.42%
- Best
- +19.68%
- Worst
- −16.26%
- Avg hold
- 9.8d
- Current streak
- L1
- Longest win run
- 8
- Longest losing run
- 2
- Weeks tracked
- 13
By setup
Every pattern that has produced a closed trade, ranked by total — each trade's own return added up, not its share of the account. Fewer than 3 trades is dimmed: small samples read as small samples.
| Setup | Trades | Win rate | Avg | Total, as a bar | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverse head and shoulders | 5 | 100% | +7.82% | +39.10% | |
| Bollinger squeeze | 2 | 100% | +9.96% | +19.92% | |
| MACD crossover | 3 | 67% | +5.40% | +16.20% | |
| EMA stack | 5 | 60% | +2.91% | +14.56% | |
| Falling wedge | 9 | 56% | +1.40% | +12.62% | |
| Bull pennant | 2 | 100% | +5.69% | +11.37% | |
| Bull flag | 3 | 100% | +3.78% | +11.33% | |
| Morning star | 1 | 100% | +8.86% | +8.86% | |
| Cup and handle | 1 | 100% | +8.76% | +8.76% | |
| Ascending channel | 1 | 100% | +7.61% | +7.61% | |
| Discretionary | 8 | 50% | +0.88% | +7.06% | |
| Ascending triangle | 1 | 100% | +3.95% | +3.95% | |
| Triple bottom | 1 | 100% | +1.27% | +1.27% | |
| Double bottom | 1 | 100% | +0.36% | +0.36% | |
| Williams %R reversal | 2 | 50% | +0.10% | +0.21% | |
| MACD curling | 1 | 0% | −0.81% | −0.81% | |
| RS line new high | 1 | 0% | −1.47% | −1.47% |
Recent trades
The last 10 closed, newest first. A Top 5 tag marks any that also made the list below.
| Closed | Ticker | Setup | Held | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | ONDS 4h MACD curling | MACD curling | <1d | −0.81% |
| Oct 6 | COIN 4h Bull flag | Bull flag | 6d | +2.30% |
| Sep 30 | UPS 1d Falling wedge | Falling wedge | 5.3w | −0.55% |
| Sep 30 | SOUN 1d Discretionary | Discretionary | 3.0w | −8.23% |
| Sep 18 | MARA 4h EMA stackTop 5 | EMA stackTop 5 | 4d | +15.06% |
| Sep 17 | RIVN 1d Inverse head and shoulders | Inverse head and shoulders | 3d | +1.16% |
| Sep 17 | RIVN 4h Bull pennant | Bull pennant | 9d | +1.35% |
| Sep 14 | DIS 1d RS line new high | RS line new high | 2.7w | −1.47% |
| Sep 14 | AAL 1d Falling wedge | Falling wedge | 6d | +1.48% |
| Sep 8 | CIFR 1h Bull flag | Bull flag | <1d | +3.31% |
Top 5 trades
The best closed trades on record, by return. The worst sits in Detail above.
| Rank | Closed | Ticker | Setup | Held | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 5 | SHOP 1d MACD crossover | MACD crossover | 6d | +19.68% |
| 2 | Aug 24 | MSTR 1d Bollinger squeeze | Bollinger squeeze | 2.7w | +17.14% |
| 3 | Jul 30 | MSFT 4h Inverse head and shoulders | Inverse head and shoulders | 8d | +15.83% |
| 4 | Sep 18 | MARA 4h EMA stack | EMA stack | 4d | +15.06% |
| 5 | Jul 8 | BABA 1d Discretionary | Discretionary | 9d | +14.59% |
How we count
The definitions behind every number above.
- Total return
- Realized profit across every fully closed trade, as a percent of the $100k starting balance — the number a brokerage screen would show.
- Per-trade return
- The position's own round trip: total sell proceeds minus total buy cost, divided by buy cost. A trade counts once it is fully closed; a partial exit stays live until the rest is out.
- Win rate
- Percent of closed trades that returned more than 0.05% — a small dead-band, so near-flat scratches don't count as wins.
- Profit factor
- Total winning percent divided by total losing percent. Above 1.5 is solid; above 2.0 is strong.
- Max drawdown
- The worst peak-to-trough drop on the cumulative equity curve.
- Weekly P/L
- A calendar week's realized profit on the account, as a percent of the $100k balance, counted by the day each trade closed.
- One trade
- One fully closed setup on a ticker at a timeframe — say, UBER ascending triangle on the 4-hour chart. Adding or trimming over several orders is still one trade; a different setup or timeframe on the same ticker counts separately.
- Open positions
- Counted, but kept out of every realized number until they close. They reach the curve on the day they do.
- Broker equity
- Alpaca's own end-of-day mark of the whole account, open positions included at their closing prices, as a percent of the same starting balance. The dashed line on the curve, and the one number on this page we don't compute ourselves.
- SPY, same window
- What the index fund did from the day the account opened, dividends reinvested, on the same axis. The bar to clear: a curve that doesn't beat the thin line didn't need the work.
- What isn't shown
- Account size, position size, dollar values, fill prices and stops. This is a track record, not a trade log to copy after the fact.
- Where the numbers come from
- Every trade runs through Alpaca with full order tracking, and each return is computed from the actual fills. This page reads only a sanitized rollup; the date at the top is its last rebuild.